How likely are we in a computer simulation carried out by a more advanced civilization?

By On Monday, June 20th, 2016 Categories : Question & Answer

How likely are we in a computer simulation carried out by a more advanced civilization?. Are You sir own that kind of concern?, If do then plz found the good soution below:

It’s hard to make sense of Musk’s argument. He appears to be talking about the odds that we will be in a simulation 10,000 years in the future, not today. But from his use of present tense in the statement, “it would seem to follow that the odds that we’re in base reality is one in billions”, it sounds like he is talking about today. I think he is really discussing future possibilities, though, because he preceded that statement by saying, “let’s imagine it’s 10,000 years in the future”.

So his argument boils down to:

  1. We continue to develop VR.
  2. 10,000 years pass.
  3. Our VR becomes lifelike and we develop billions of VR devices.
  4. So at that time we are more likely to be in VR than in base reality.

The media seems to be reporting Musk’s argument as a present-day claim. They seem to be saying that Musk thinks we are at present in a simulation, and not in reality. I think that is an incorrect interpretation of his remarks, since he was really talking about the far future. It’s more sensible to interpret his remarks as though he said, “it would seem to follow that the odds that we’re in base reality [at that point in time 10,000 years from now when we are surrounded by billions of advanced VR devices] is one in billions.”

Anyway, the flaw in his argument is that he is calculating odds incorrectly. Imagine this similar argument: There are billions of TVs today, so the odds that you are doing anything other than watching TV right now is one in billions. While you certainly may be watching TV right now, the odds are more like 1 in 6 that you are watching TV, assuming that the average person spends 4 hours out of 24 watching TV.

Musk would put the odds of your watching TV as nearly 100%, as though the existence of a TV somewhere means you must be watching it. This is incorrect.

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